GOP's Grand Texas Gamble Might Face Disruption by Donald Trump's Intervention, According to CNN Data Leader
In a recent analysis, CNN's chief data analyst, Harry Enten, has highlighted potential issues for Texas Republicans in their redistricting effort. Enten suggests that the current drop in President Donald Trump's approval rating among Texas Latinos could backfire, potentially undermining the Republicans' plans.
The drop in Trump's net approval rating with Texas Latinos is significant, with a nearly "50 point switcheroo" since earlier. According to Enten's analysis, Trump's net approval rating has cratered to -40, a stark contrast from the +9 rating he held against Kamala Harris in October 2024.
Enten emphasises that this shift is due to a significant change in the demographic's view of Trump on the economy. Polling shows a significant drop in Trump's net favourable rating with Texas Latinos, falling from 0 in October 2024 to -32 currently.
The current trend mirrors what's happening nationwide, according to Enten. Many of the redrawn districts in Texas are predominantly Hispanic, making them crucial in the Republicans' plans. However, Enten questions the success of the Texas Republicans' redistricting plan, given the current drop in Trump's approval rating.
Enten also doubts whether the Republicans may have taken on more than they can handle with the current drop in Texas. If Texas Republicans are betting on Latinos to remain in the Republican camp in 2024, they may not be able to cash in on this bet, given the current trend.
In light of these findings, Enten expresses doubt about the success of the Rotz districts in Texas, which rely on President Trump's support among Latinos. The identity of the person who created the template for these districts remains unknown.
The implications of these findings could have a significant impact on the midterms, as Republicans are banking on Trump's gains with Latinos to hold. Enten's analysis suggests that the Republicans may face challenges in their plans due to the current drop in Trump's approval rating.
